They say that the peak in oil prices is caused by the unrest in the Middle East.
The data doesn’t necessarily support that. In fact some might say that what is happening in the middle east is good for trade and efficient pricing because oil producing countries will become more democratic and transparent rather than opaque dictatorships.
The trend for energy prices is rapidly trending upward – much faster than inflation.
This is the same for food prices which are closely correlated to oil prices. Fossil fuel is the biggest input to global agriculture and food prices are also driven by a growing population in the context of maximal land usage.
So, expect energy and food prices to continue their trend.
On a global systems level we need to reduce energy consumption before the resource constraints catalyse violence.
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