Come clean and admit it – there’s a recession.

Why don’t the reulators, policy makers, players and pundits just admit there’s a problem. I find it extraordinary that Bernanke and co won’t admit there’s a recession.  If they think that they can talk their way out of this downturn, how we can we believe that they will be able to re-engineer the financial system …
Continue reading Come clean and admit it – there’s a recession.

Africa insulated from financial crisis.

As contended in our Financial Crisis 2008 notes, it is likely that Africa will not suffer the same fate as Western economies in this implosion of the financial markets. In this report the BBC asks Can Africa gain in the credit crisis? I see a number of issues in Africa’s favour: It is coming from …
Continue reading Africa insulated from financial crisis.

Oil companies must be making loads of money

The price of oil has dropped to $73 a barrel.  Pump prices have hardly moved in the past few months.  Demand is virtually constant.  Oil companies are profiting from that wide margin.

Can you say “volatility”?

Well, the news of European bank recapitalisations by governments underpinned an optimistic rally on the stock markets. But they will not return to previous levels. Volatility like this is a trader’s paradise. Index fluctuations of 3% (and up to 8%) are extraordinary and not indicative of value. But opinions seem to have value. The real …
Continue reading Can you say “volatility”?

The Wall Street Crash – archive 23 November 1929

New investing lingo

A fun email circulating trading desks, worthwhile as an informal measure of sentiment: CEO –Chief Embezzlement Officer. CFO– Corporate Fraud Officer. BULL MARKET — A random market movement causing an investor to mistake himself for a financial genius. BEAR MARKET — A 6 to 18 month period when the kids get no allowance, the wife …
Continue reading New investing lingo

The mess mapped

Another graphic showing the devious route we travelled to build a sub-prime house of cards … Source: Chain of fools Matt Miller The Deal.com, October 3, 2008 at 4:52 PM http://www.thedeal.com/newsweekly/features/chain-of-fools.php

View from the inside: what went wrong, incompetence and what’s next …

Insightful comments from James Grant, a well respected financial market analyst.  In this interview with the Financial Times he comments on intervention by the US government exacerbating the problem, the incompetence of fiduciaries and the “bail-out” plan. Here’s the video link.

US financials – a trillion dollars down, so far.

Pastel interactive graphic from the NYT showing the wall street meltdown.  So far 29 firms have lost about a trillion dollars. (thats 12 zeros) from NYT.

Is bailing out Fannie and Freddie a good thing?

Markets seem to like the idea of the two massive US mortgage lenders, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, being bailed out by the US government. Markets will benefit, in the short term. $ 200 billion dollars to support borrowers is attractive. But the medium and long term consequences are unlikely to be benign. This will …
Continue reading Is bailing out Fannie and Freddie a good thing?