Helping us get real – the IMF owns up to the recession

The IMF has issued revised forecasts for Advanced Economies’ output in 2009. They have revised their forecast from 0.5% growth (made a month ago) to 0.3% shrinkage. They forecast US output change of -0.7%, EU change of -0.5% and Japan change of -0.3%. (Emerging market and developing economies still to grow at 5.1%.) Admitting that …
Continue reading Helping us get real – the IMF owns up to the recession

Don’t let Obama become a “Kennedy”

As expected Barack Obama has broken historical trends in this election. His victory was gained through hard work and campaign spending. But it happened because of a yearning for change from a wide cross-section of America. Not only has he finally broken the race barrier but he has made superlative gains in places that have …
Continue reading Don’t let Obama become a “Kennedy”

One country – two systems, again?

It is encouraging to see the relationship between China and Taiwan improving.  Practical aspects like increased flights and trade will benefit both countries.  Maybe China is willing to engage because they envision another “one country – two systems” arrangement evolving which would allow both China and Taiwan to save face while continuing on their current …
Continue reading One country – two systems, again?

Financial crisis – lessons from the past

A useful review of historical financial crises by the BBC.  Here are some extracts worth pondering; 1929 though, was only the beginning of a bear market that went on for some three years before the Dow bottomed out, 90% below its peak. During that time there were no less than seven rallies: the longest went …
Continue reading Financial crisis – lessons from the past

Systems-Thinking.org

Mental Model Musings at the web-address www.systems-thinking.org offers an easy to navigate portal in to the world of systems thinking. Worth a browse for anyone in the knowledge business. To get an idea of the extent of the musings of Gene Bellinger, here are the contents: Systems Modeling & Simulation Systems Introduction to Systems Thinking …
Continue reading Systems-Thinking.org

US interest rates – how low can you go

Well not much lower.  US interest rates were cut from 1.5% to 1.0% today.  Soon they’ll be emulating Japan’s interest rate environment – hovering around 0.5%.  And Japan’s economic reputation for the past decade or so has not been good. As we’ve said before, the interest rate level is not the problem.  This reduction may …
Continue reading US interest rates – how low can you go

New Openoffice looks and feels great.

I did an online update of my software yesterday which resulted in the new openoffice.org version 3.0 being loaded in the background.  So, when I started using it today it looked a bit different … a bit better actually.  The interface is smarter and has more flexibility at your fingertips, its quicker and it has …
Continue reading New Openoffice looks and feels great.

Ecological crunch looming

Conservation groups have released a report showing that humanity is overconsuming natural capital and are pushing natural systems well beyond their limits.  The report estimates a credit excess of a third (though we believe it to be greater).  The consequences will be a failure of natural systems and then a failure of human systems and …
Continue reading Ecological crunch looming