OPEC’s World Oil Outlook 2008 is a realistic but very worrying analysis of the global energy picture. It discusses the recent gyrations of the price of oil and its underlying drivers, in particular the growth of speculation, and outlines demand and supply parameters.
While it projects a sufficient supply for the coming decades, whether or not this is realistic, their underlying analysis of demand suggests a gross misallocation of global capital and the acceleration of nature’s destruction. The WOO projects a 50% increase in fossil fuel use, underpinned by growth in developing countries, by 2050. This is unsustainable and unacceptable.
We must work to build a social and economic infrastructure for humanity that uses 50% LESS energy, while giving similar life enjoyment. This is achievable through energy efficiencies, such as building design, appliance design and vehicle design (see Amory Lovins’ Winning The Oil Endgame), and redesigning living and working systems so that we do not demand transport in the extensive way of today – we must move toward community living dynamics, which not only eliminate commuting and reduce the need for freight transport, but also enhance the “happiness” of lifestyles.
The fact that OPEC proclaims a worry-free outlook for the oil industry is of great concern. That OPEC does not balance their analysis of oil supply with the natural consequences of massively increasing humanity’s carbon footprint proves that global leaders (see G8 – a lot of hot air) still do not see beyond the end of their political noses and vested interests. There is absolutely no way that the biosphere can survive a 50% increase in carbon output by humanity. There is no way that life on earth can survive increasing pollution.
Hi Tom, this is nothing to do with astraea, just seeing if I can reach you this way. I have tried emailing, and even though I am on-line, I cannot SEND an eamil. This means I still cannot send the mailing list to Simon. I cannot print it and send it; i cannot copy it to CD because we happen to be out of CDs. I am going crazy!! I actually went into “mail.ballintemple.com” on my own computer to send the file to simon, and I couldn’t find the file! I couldn’t find “windows/d/pestalozzi” etc. So I typed in the path and the email came back with an error message saying it couldn’t find the file. I tried opening a hotmail account – cynthia suggested it earlier and opened one for me. I lost the paper with the informaiton. I tried opening one myself and needed to be in Windows. I went to Windows and had to wait 15 minutes while it did an automatic update. Then I couldn’t open a hotmail account anyhow….. njust too impatient to read the convoluted instructyions byu that stage. alahr;ahdjvhab;idufbvli asueyrgovahisegnfca!!!!! Tlak to you soon! Love Pam xxx