The cost of conflict on African development was approximately $300 billion between 1990 and 2005, according to new research by Oxfam International, IANSA and Saferworld. This is equal to the amount of money received in international aid during the same period. The study Africa’s Missing Billions is the first time analysts have estimated the overall effects of conflict on GDP across the continent and comes as diplomats from around the world arrive at the United Nations to discuss an Arms Trade Treaty. It shows that on average a war, civil war or insurgency shrinks an African economy by 15%. The continent loses an average of around $18 billion a year due to armed conflict. It concludes that African governments have taken encouraging steps at a regional level to control arms transfers, but that what is needed is a global, legally-binding arms trade treaty.
The study’s methodology almost certainly gives an under-estimate. It does not include the economic impact on neighbouring countries, which could suffer from political insecurity or a sudden influx of refugees. The study only covers periods of actual combat, but some costs of war, such as increased military spending and a struggling economy, continue long after the fighting has stopped. In countries affected by war the direct costs of violence (such as military expenditure or the destruction of infrastructure) pale in comparison to the indirect costs of lost opportunities. These include:
- Inflation, debt and high unemployment.
- Income from natural resources going to private individuals, rather than being invested in the nation as a whole.
- More people, especially women and children, die from the consequences of conflict than in the fighting itself.
It is ironic that the trend is to increase weapons proliferation in Africa, as the US imports weapons to Iraq and is establishing a new African military command centre. A solution to violence in Africa requires the commitment of western economies to peace. This will be difficult to achieve in a climate which rationalises that more weapons are needed for security – a Doomsday rationale.
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