Category Archives: 3 The World of Money

Unplanned and Unexpected – A Vision of the Future

Life’s journey has no beginning or end yet events, like seasons and birthdays, mark its progress. So, in anticipation of astraea turning 20, and to say “thank you” to all the people who had helped us along the way, we thought about having an exposition of our work and a party.

Many people around the world have helped and supported us, so, while we would gather here at Ballin Temple, we wanted to share with everyone who couldn’t come. We planned to broadcast the event on the web.

We planned to share a broad, experiential perspective on our adventure over the past two decades. We’d give a walk around the vegetable plots, tool shed and so on offering little demos such as digging, harvesting, chainsawing, splitting logs and so on. Then we’d have a chat in The Tent on big picture perspectives like holonics, metaphysical dynamics, money, nature, consciousness and more. Followed by “tea” and chat (to include drinks, snacks and music).

Continue reading Unplanned and Unexpected – A Vision of the Future

Speaking Truth To Power

Be aware.

In a couple of minutes you can hear what is wrong and how we can change to save ourselves from our most primitive instincts, like fear and greed.

“The real power belongs to the people.”

Transcript:

“My name is Greta Thunberg. I am 15 years old. I am from Sweden. I speak on behalf of Climate Justice Now. Many people say that Sweden is just a small country and it doesn’t matter what we do. But I’ve learned you are never too small to make a difference. And if a few children can get headlines all over the world just by not going to school, then imagine what we could all do together if we really wanted to.

But to do that, we have to speak clearly, no matter how uncomfortable that may be. You only speak of green eternal economic growth because you are too scared of being unpopular. You only talk about moving forward with the same bad ideas that got us into this mess, even when the only sensible thing to do is pull the emergency brake. You are not mature enough to tell it like is. Even that burden you leave to us children. But I don’t care about being popular. I care about climate justice and the living planet. Our civilization is being sacrificed for the opportunity of a very small number of people to continue making enormous amounts of money. Our biosphere is being sacrificed so that rich people in countries like mine can live in luxury. It is the sufferings of the many which pay for the luxuries of the few.

Continue reading Speaking Truth To Power

How to Invest in Stocks

The Efficient Frontier
Optimal returns, for a given risk level, are on the efficient frontier – a statistical fact demonstrable by financial engineers. A market portfolio, or the index, is on this frontier,

It has long been known by investment analysts that optimising risk and return (which is their job) is achieved by tracking the market.  Experienced managers, analysts and data all consistently say that, if you want to invest in the stock market buy the index.  And hold it.

Young bucks, and old, would like to beat the market.  Some might do so for a limited time period.  But no one has consistently done so.  Why?  Because to beat the market you have to consistently do better than everyone else.  That is cocky and statistically very unlikely.

The opportunity to make better bets than everyone else has declined in recent years as computerised portfolio management and trading has grown and index investing has become the principal approach of behemoths which control sizeable fraction of global share trading, like BlackRock.

In addition, some data suggests that taking higher risks can in fact lower your expected return, as appeared to happen in the 2000s.  We are now 9 years into a bull market with little regulatory reform, growing political uncertainty and upward pressure on interest rates (which might attract capital from equities to debt).

Absoulte Portfolios Over Time
The return to risk shrunk as the financial bubble of the early 2000s grew.

The people who beat the market are the ones who take fees (from you) for handling money, or have inside information.

There are reasons to choose a narrower portfolio of listed equities. You might want to restrict your investment to a country, region or industry, or avoid places or sectors.  But to try to pick stocks requires a consistent focus and adaptability.  If you are going to do it yourself, fine.  But if you are paying someone else, they generally have an incentive to take risks with your money that they mightn’t with their own.  And of course their fees eat in to your capital.

So, simply, if you wish to diversify your savings beyond property (your home usually) or debt (bank deposits etc) by putting some in the stock market be careful not to be blinded by the attraction of “expected return” ignoring the danger of risk, and the cost of fees.  So buy a low load (i.e. low fees), index (i.e. market tracking) fund.

(If you wish to use your capital to make a difference you might consider directly investing in small businesses.  This has become more accessible with crowd funding opportunities.  Or you might invest directly in a local business or a sector for which you have a passion, for example Green, Ethical, Socially Responsible businesses.  But all of these options demand more care (“due diligence”) and should be approached with awareness that you can loose all of your investment, and sometimes more if you sign up for that. )

And remember, most people make money by working, not gambling.  Gambling is more likely to break your fortune than make it.

The following article by The Economist (11 June 2016) offers further insight. Continue reading How to Invest in Stocks

Bitcoin: the World’s first decentralised Ponzi scheme by David Webb

This article by David Webb is insightful and brief.  You may have no interest in Bitcoin, however, his observations are relevant to banking and the financial system.  For me, one conclusion is that it is immoral to support (buy) bitcoin, on the level of gambling, and, if you understand it as a pyramid scheme, morally worse than gambling because the scheme is destabilising and fraudulent (in that people don’t know what they are getting in to).

The original is here: Bitcoin: the World’s first decentralised Ponzi scheme  You may sign up for Webb’s free newsletter, which is particularly relevant for Hong Kong financial markets.

Summary: So long as we have governments with the power to tax and spend in their own currencies, digital pseudo-currencies will never gain traction. Bitcoin and its imitators are a zero-sum game in which the sum of all fiat currency paid for it is the sum of all fiat currency received for it, excluding mining costs. The earlier participants are now cashing out the billions that newcomers are putting into this distributed Ponzi scheme. Play it for entertainment value if you want, but remember that you are purely betting on the greater stupidity of others.

Continue reading Bitcoin: the World’s first decentralised Ponzi scheme by David Webb

The Blue Economy

Here’s a nice 6 minute video that puts us in the picture.  The big picture.

It’s not the whole story, but its brief and is a super introduction and a refresher for old hands..

We are past the point of stopping disruption.  It was 15 oC this evening.  (Ireland, December) 13 oC would be OK, maybe in the realm of normality.  But 15oC is not a symptom of normality.

And then there’s the data.  We believe in data because we live off it.  It is data that runs our lives, our businesses, our cell phones.  And data shows us what’s going on, what’s behind the hype.  So check out the movie and research some data.  Change is happening. Adapt.

ZERI, initiated by the founder of Ecover, explains why the “green” economy must evolve to the “blue” economy and how …

Our Suicide is Painless

Yesterday was an unusual day filled with seemingly inane chores that had to be done.  I was arriving back home in the afternoon with groceries for guests and planned to turn the hay.   I drove past a field adjacent to our where a tractor was spraying and turned in to the drive to be greeted by a distasteful, though recognisable, toxic smell.

“Damn!”

Usually I’d just accept that that landowner had to spray to make a living, but I didn’t like the idea that our hay was being contaminated while it was looking so good.  Unusually, I decided to take another angle, dropped the bags on the kitchen floor, said “Hi!” to guests and spun the car around back up to the field.

After working out which row the tractor was in I walked up to the driver, who kindly stopped and helped me get n touch with the landowner.

The driver said the spray  was only to stop “disease”.

The landowner said it was only to stop “disease”.

They both said it was “OK”.

The contractor couldn’t come back on a still day because he had to empty the tanks since the pesticide had been paid for.  The wind might die down so he could wait a bit.  I knew the spray would still be sprayed, and would drift.  Hopefully little would drift, though you could see a 20  metre tail behind the tractor and smell it quarter of a kilometre away.

I asked what it was.  “I dunno.  Let’s have a look.”

So we did. It was Imtrex.

Imtrex – dead fish, dead tree, dead human …

“Wow.  Look at the labels on it! Dead fish.  Dead tree.  Heart attack.  C’mon! This can’t be good.”

It’s weird though.  It’s being sprayed right on the ears of ripening barley, and we’re going to eat it.  There’s poison on it , and we’re going to eat it.  We’re killing ourselves and enjoying it.

We don’t make the connection between our demand for cheap, convenient food and lifestyles and the consequential impairment of diet and lifestyle.  Our monolithic food chain, standardised automated production, controlled by capitalists is withering our soul and costing our health.  Apart from the increased incidence of cancer which only affects a third or so of us, almost everyone is affected by the lower quality of food – processed, refined, packaged with a fraction of the dietary health benefits of real food, but extra poison.

Yet we all buy in to it.  We all live the lie.  The farmer can’t make ends meet if he doesn’t.  (Ironically, I found out since that this “T3” third treatment for “disease” was being applied too late, as the ears were grown, and so wouldn’t improve yield, although the farmer could prove he sprayed the “treatment”.)   We can’t make ends meet f we don’t play the pyramid consumption game.  So we all turn a blind eye to our gradual suicide.  It’s fairly painless anyway.

But it could be different.  It would be different if we all chose differently.  It doesn’t have to be much at first, but even little thoughtful choices make a difference.  And they lead to bigger thoughtful choice.  And when everyone starts choosing differently, the world changes fast.  So whether you’re in the tractor, in the shop, regulating the chemical, making the chemical, or financing the chemical, don’t turn a blind eye.  Think, and choose to change a little.

Because dying can be easy or hard, and withering from poison is not easy.

Time is running out: Behind the curve on SDGs

SustainAblility and Globescan’s recent survey of progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals is not encouraging.

Progress on transition to sustainable development to date (% of experts)
Progress on transition to sustainable development to date (% of experts)

Over 500 experts contributed.  The consensus is that progress and attention is lagging the need for change.  If data is restricted to those with a decade or more of experience the picture is worse.

“Poor” progress on transition to sustainable development to date (% of experts)
“Poor” progress on transition to sustainable development to date (% of experts)

Progress is dominated by social entrepreneurs and NGOs while national governments’ and corporates’ performance is considered poor.

Contribution of organizations to progress on the SDGs (% of experts)
Contribution of organizations to progress on the SDGs (% of experts)

The lack of attention by governments and corporates is underpinned by their “clients” – voters and consumers – so clearly there remains among people generally a lack of awareness of the need and opportunity for system change.  People don’t perceive the dangers of failing commercial and social systems and the disintegration of Earth’s natural environment upon which we rely.

Perhaps this is not surprising.  Except for change agents and social entrepreneurs, people are not engaged with the problems of the world but instead stick to traditional mindsets and routines.  (The SDG’s themselves are fundamentally flawed in their promotion of growth, as opposed to working within natural laws and the capacity of the biosphere.) Continue reading Time is running out: Behind the curve on SDGs

Where the world is going, today.

If you are an expert in your field you have a good idea of what is going on in that area.  That’s how you make a living.  Most of us express views about news and events that are outside our area of expertise especially if we think that they might effect us in some way, like politics and economics.  The Presidency of the United States of America is one of those things.

Everyone will be talking about the new US administration in America today.  Some will be earnest, some dismissive, some joyful, some sad or angry.  Irrespective of your emotions or political leanings, its impact will affect you. Continue reading Where the world is going, today.

Snack Food Slavery: We’re all enjoying it.

What?  Not me.  No way!  Slavery is bad.

Yeah, but … you’re still part of the problem.  We all are.

Here’s a piece of the big picture puzzle:

Soda and chips … sugars and fats … vegetable oil … palm oil … slaves and rain forest exploitation.palmoilslave

That food chain is run by big companies, big banks and rich owners.  (You might be one without even realising it!)

It’s fuelled by people buying foods made with industrially grown vegetable oils.  That means most products on the supermarket shelves, including all the big brands owned by companies like Nestle, Unilever, Pepsico, Heinz, Cargill, CocaCola, Kraft, P&G, …  And the food chain is financed with money from big banks like Citi, HSBC, JP Morgan Chase, Deutsche Bank, BNP Paribas, Standard Chartered, Mizuho, Rabobank, …

Continue reading Snack Food Slavery: We’re all enjoying it.