Tag Archives: growth

Global perspectives: Technology, Growth, Money, Politics and what to invest in

The Long Termworld-300px

We’re talking 20 years or so here.

In 20  years we’ll be facing Big Stuff.  Climate change, weather volatility, species loss, clean air, clean water, … that whole environment thing will be getting much more serious and everyone will be dealing with it in some way or another.  I’m hoping it’ll make Ireland a bit more like the south of France, and it might, but whatever else, it’s going to make the simple things in life more difficult.  For most of humanity that will include feeding themselves and getting clean water.

So that will make food and land more important.

In 20 years we may well have passed “The Singularity“.  That’s a term coined by futurists, often with a trans-humanist bent, which denotes the inevitable point at which technology development starts happening “by itself”.  This occurs as humanity’s understanding of physics and biology enable the creation of thinking machines (computers) that emulate the brain, and then androids and cyborgs begin to be used in place of people.

Certainly in 20 years technology will have changed our world even more than in the past 20.   Do not imagine The Singularity to be fantasy.  We are close already.  The mobile phone/computer in your pocket is old technology compared with neuro-computers being tested in laboratories.  Robots are already becoming remarkably similar to C-3PO in looks and mobility at least.  Today the consequences are being felt in most professions as AI (artificial intelligence) takes jobs away from humans.  This is what we all wanted – automatic checkout, automatic cashier, automatic accountant, automatic lawyer, automatic vehicle … The challenge now being solved is automatic creativity.

Continue reading Global perspectives: Technology, Growth, Money, Politics and what to invest in

Asset prices down, money chasing security. What’s the problem?

While there has been enthusiasm for a recovering global economy, optimism is being dampened by market movements.

There are some fundamental concerns about projected consumption levels and production costs.

There are a number of geopolitical risks festering around the world:

The strife in Hong Kong is being calmed by force.  That will be re-assuring now, but has shown the inability of Xi to lead a new path and China to manage the inevitable progression to maturity.  Hong Kong is China’s best testing ground for political innovation, which must manifest in China soon otherwise social tension will disrupt economic strength.

The middle east …!  Syria and IS are immediate and top of the list, but they are set to be a decades long drama of death.  Iraq, Afghanistan, Iran., Libya, and more.  Israel/Palestine … so sad.  These are are drain on the consciousness, but are inconsequential as long as the oil flows.  Phew.

Ebola is gaining momentum rather than being contained.  That might change.  But it’s scary to imagine a wierd disease like that becoming a global epidemic.  Managing a cataclysm like that might bring people together.

Everything’s going to be fine, in the short term.  But the underlying systemic risks, economic, social and ethical,  remain.

A holonic prescription for success without growth beckons.  Will our leaders lean in that direction?

BBC: Global shares slide on growth fears

BloombergBusinessWeek:  U.S. Oil Producers May Drill Themselves Into Oblivion

 IMF: World Economic Outlook (WEO) Legacies, Clouds, Uncertainties