The Economist offers analysis and a guide to curbing greenhouse gases, as the UN conference on climate change approaches. Here’s their summary table.
Notice that the Montreal Protocol achieved the most by a wide margin. The next most effective policy has been China’s one-child policy. The effectiveness of both is supported by the simple discipline of saying “no”. “No” to more consumption of CFCs. “No” to more people.
If we are to align human behaviour with the laws of nature we must learn to say “no” more often. No to more consumption. No to more people. We can all make a difference by reducing our personal consumption and changing the permissive culture of procreation.
To keep the rise in global temperatures within safe bounds will require cutting carbon emissions by around 26 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent per year by 2030. That is almost halving the current rate of emissions, not growing them, as we now are doing. As well as personal efforts, global efforts are needed including a carbon treaty, stopping deforestation, slashing subsidies to fossil fuels and much more (see article).
The Economist: Curbing climate change The deepest cuts
The Economist: Greenhouse gases Paris via Montreal
“Low Carbon Economy Index,” a report released by the accounting giant PricewaterhouseCoopers, has numerous stark warnings. Sadly they are unlikely to be heeded by those that matter – big companies, governments and people like you and me – because those are the culprits identified in the report.
According to the PricewaterhouseCoopers report, “the gap between what we are doing and what we need to do has again grown, for the sixth year running.” The report adds that at current rates, we’re headed towards 7.2 degrees Fahrenheit of warming by the end of the century—twice the agreed upon rate. Here’s a breakdown of the paper’s major findings.
The report notes that the world is going to blow a hole in its carbon budget—the amount we can burn to keep the world from overheating beyond 3.6 degrees:
PricewaterhouseCoopers paints a bleak picture. The timeline is unforgiving. The IPCC and others have estimated that global emissions must peak by 2020 to meet a 2°C budget. So emissions from developed economies need to be consistently falling, and emissions from major developing countries have to start declining from 2020 onwards. G20 nations will need to cut their annual energy-related emissions by one-third by 2030, and by just over half by 2050.
None of that is happening, so we all better change habits ourselves. We must consume less and share more, especially technology.
City Lab by The Atlantic: A Major Accounting Firm Just Ran the Numbers on Climate Change
So, the ozone hole has stopped shrinking. That’s good to know. But I’m cynical about how good the news is because the Montreal accord banning CFCs occurred in 1987 more than a quarter of a century ago and we’re spewing out more greenhouse gases than ever. And the weather is still wacky.
A surge in atmospheric CO2 saw levels of greenhouse gases reach record levels in 2013, according to new figures. Concentrations of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere between 2012 and 2013 grew at their fastest rate since 1984.
This warning data is compounded by the finding that CO2 locked in soil (which is 4x the amount in plants) is being released as the planet experiences warmer, more volatile temperatures. This means that release of greenhouse gases is creating a feedback on itself, thereby compounding the problem.
Atmospheric CO2 is now at 142% of the levels in 1750, before the start of the industrial revolution. We are running out of time.
Reducing CO2 will only occur if we reduce energy consumption and use more renewable sources. We must live within the laws of nature or nature will just get rid of us.
And don’t expect government to act. It is up to each of us to take a step in the right direction, every day. That means me and you too.
Nature: Temperature sensitivity of soil respiration rates enhanced by microbial community response
It happens regularly now. Tonnes of agricultural fertiliser and sprays running off the land in to the water system causing eutrophication. Algae bloom and everything else dies. And even massive municipal treatment plants can’t clean the water. Farming practices and climate change cause the problem, which will not go away until we all choose to live more sustainably on the planet.
The Guardian: Farming practices and climate change at root of Toledo water pollution
NASA Earth Observatory: Algae Bloom on Lake Erie
For related articles and information, please visit OCA’s Farm Issues page, He alth Issues page and our Environment and Climate Resource Center page.
“Climate change is already affecting the American people in far-reaching ways.” So begins an extensive report issued by the U.S. Global Change Research Program on May 6, 2014.
Among the changes is an increase in temperature, as illustrated in this image.
Acquired 1991 – 2012
And scientists also observed changes in precipitation.
acquired 1991 – 2012
The IPCC released the second report on climate change. It is more very bad news, but even so might still be insufficient to stimulate action from leaders or followers.
Last September a summary on the physical science of climate change showed that climate change is real, and humans are the “dominant cause”. Now the IPCC reports that if behaviour doesn’t change – i.e. less fossil fuel consumption and less net carbon release – the possibility of redressing climate volatility will diminish.
The scientists point out that some effects will become irreversible which must be bad. One extrapolation is that crop yields, which are already stretched to feed the world, will decline. If we don’t reduce consumption now, there will be nothing to consume in a few decades.
It is sad to be able to see the pain in the future, but realise that most people do not. The US Secretary of State said:
“Unless we act dramatically and quickly, science tells us our climate and our way of life are literally in jeopardy. Denial of the science is malpractice. There are those who say we can’t afford to act. But waiting is truly unaffordable. The costs of inaction are catastrophic.”
But cynics respond cynically and everyone turns a blind eye. It is depressing when leaders, especially rich, educated ones, obscure the truth and pretend that everything is ok. Weird weather is in the headlines almost daily now, yet everyone goes about their business as if everything is OK. Burying your head in the sand is not a solution. Changing behaviour is.
BBC: World ‘needs Plan B’ on climate – IPCC report
BBC: Climate inaction catastrophic
BBC: Climate impacts report: Key findings
BBC: Climate change impacts and adaptation
BBC: IPCC climate report: humans ‘dominant cause’ of warming
Professor Jennifer Francis recently presented evidence showing that the loss of Arctic summer sea ice and the rapid warming of the Far North are altering the jet stream over North America, Europe, and Russia and these profound shifts increase the likelihood of more extreme weather. The so-called jet stream has increasingly taken a longer, meandering path, which has resulted in weather remaining the same for more prolonged periods.
Minimum summer sea ice in the Arctic Ocean, 1979 to 2011
The Cryosphere Today/Polar Research Group, the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
Read her 2012 report here.
When glacial melting becomes irreversible it’s not good, and it’s happening now.
Three teams that have modelled behaviour of Antarctica’s mighty Pine Island Glacier (PIG) tell the journal Nature Climate Change that, even if the region were to experience much colder conditions, its retreat would continue.
The glacier is a colossal feature, covering more than 160,000 sq km, it drains about 20% of all the ice flowing off the west of the White Continent. And its melt is raising sea levels. The teams write in their journal paper:
“The glacier’s associated mass loss increases substantially over the course of our simulations from the average value of 20 billion tonnes a year observed for the 1992-2011 period, up to and above 100 billion tonnes a year, equivalent to 3.5-10mm eustatic sea-level rise over the following 20 years.” (By way of comparison, West Antarctica as a whole contributes about 0.3mm per year to sea level rise.)
The only way to reset nature to a balanced state is to reduce consumption of natural resources by humanity, which is not anticipated soon. In fact, it is not even an objective of any governments or the rich and powerful.
BBC: Pine Island Glacier’s retreat ‘irreversible’
BBC: Esa’s Cryosat mission detects continued West Antarctic ice loss
In Dangerous Global Warming Closer Than You Think, Climate Scientists Say, Scientific American outlines two reports encouraging immediate and extensive action, before it’s too late.
The message of the reports is that climate volatility is already here, species extinction is close to a critical level, as are levels of toxic concentrates. They are now talking in terms of only decades to repair the problems.
Sadly there remain climate deniers who resist the science, using the moderate language of scientific data interpretation to claim that inconclusiveness equates to fallacy. These few climate deniers influence millions who support their claims, many doing so on religious grounds (which is doubly sad because no god would be pleased with the way the planet is polluted even by faithful climate deniers).
We are getting deeper in to a situation requiring radical change in behaviour, especially with respect to energy consumption and sources. Everyone has to change behaviour now. Use less energy. Eliminate combustion of fossil fuels. Everyone. Now.
PlosOne: Assessing ‘Dangerous Climate Change
National Academy of Sciences: Abrupt Impacts of Climate Change: Anticipating Surprises
That’s about $112 for each adult in the world. It’s a lot of money for any industry. It’s a huge commitment of resources for a sunset industry. Subsidies must be eliminated.
The Overseas Development Institute (ODI) report notes that “these subsidies outweigh the support provided to fast-start climate finance by a ratio of 7:1”. That mismatch smacks of corruption, which shouldn’t surprise anyone but will, since we think of the big energy companies are at least legal, if not ethical.
It is sad that we continue to subsidise industrial development that promotes climate change and biosphere degradation when everyone, especially policy makers, knows that humanity needs and wants to clean up.
The ODI report recommends phasing out subsidies by 2025. That is too late.
SocialFunds.com: Fossil Fuel Subsidies Average $112 per Adult