The best six doctors are sunshine, water, rest, air, exercise and diet.
If you see some question about what the future holds the ideas outlined in the WFS Outlook 2013 will stimulate. Even if you have found teh answer it will still feed you brain. Enjoy it.
Human actions could become more accurately predictable, thanks to neuroscience. Nano-sized robots will deliver cancer-fighting drugs directly to their targets. And though many recently lost jobs may never come back, people will find plenty to do (and get paid for) in the future.
These are just a few of the forecasts you’ll find in this latest edition of Outlook, a roundup of the most thought-provoking possibilities and ideas published in THE FUTURIST magazine over the past year.
The forecasts collected in the World Future Society’s annual Outlook reports are not intended to predict the future, but rather to provoke thought and inspire action for building a better future today.
The opinions and ideas expressed are those of their authors or sources cited and do not necessarily represent the views of the World Future Society. For more information, please refer to the original articles cited. Back issues of THE FUTURIST may be purchased at www.wfs.org/backissues.
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Many recently lost jobs may never come back, but there’s still a future for work. The economy may become increasingly jobless. Rather than worry about unemployment, tomorrow’s workers will focus on developing a variety of skills that could keep them working productively and continuously, whether they have jobs or not. It’ll be about finding out what other people need done, and doing it. —James H. Lee, “Hard at Work in the Jobless Future,” Mar-Apr 2012, pp. 32-33
Corporate reputation ratings will be even more transparent with augmented reality. In a “Rateocracy,” where organizations’ reputations are quantified, data could be included in geographically based information systems. You might choose one restaurant over another when your mobile augmented-reality app flashes warnings about health-department citations or poor customer reviews. —Robert Moran, “‘Rateocracy’ and Corporate Reputation,” World Trends & Forecasts, May-June 2012, p. 12
Virtual games could accelerate real economic growth. Games played on mobile devices are increasingly enticing players with discounts, coupons, and other real-world rewards. As players use their phones to pay for the games and make purchases, bypassing credit cards, bank accounts, and cash, the so-called virtual economy could grow from $3 billion in 2009 to $300 billion in the next 10 years, predicts Kiip co-founder Brian Wong. —World Trends & Forecasts, Nov-Dec 2011, p. 6
Money and even cash will still exist by 2100. Money will increasingly move to digital forms for legitimate transactions, but cash will still be the lifeblood of the black-market economy. Society will likely embrace barter, at least at the peer-to-peer level, but public services such as defense and justice will still be supported via taxes. —Stephen Aguilar-Millan, “Will We Still Have Money in 2100?” Sep-Oct 2012, p. 43
India will become a hotbed of “invisible innovation.” Rather than focusing on tangible consumer products like the iPad, innovators in India emphasize processes that improve efficiency. Future success will depend on modernizing the nation’s university system as well as its intellectual property laws. —Nirmalya Kumar and Phanish Puranam, authors of India Inside, reviewed by Rick Docksai, May-June 2012, p. 54
Upscale opportunities in resource recovery will abound. Going beyond using post-consumer waste to make more stuff—often of inferior quality—upcycling is about harvesting resources to make new products of higher commercial value. For example, the social enterprise Back to the Roots company sells kits that allow people to use recycled coffee grounds for growing gourmet mushrooms. —Tomorrow in Brief, July-Aug 2012, p. 2
Sex workers in developed countries will become more responsible for their own branding. With more technologies available to them to work as independent entrepreneurs, sex workers will adopt retailing trends like collective discounts, online reviews, and strategic partnerships. By 2030, mainstream companies will increasingly invest in pornography (such as purchasing product placements) and even sponsor sex workers. —Emily Empel, “The Future of the Commercial Sex Industry,” May-June 2012, p. 39
Career “paths” will become patchwork pieces. Baby boomers’ future career trajectories will more resemble a lattice than a ladder, with more lateral moves on the way up. For younger generations, it will be more of a patchwork quilt: multiple jobs stitched together to form a more flexible work environment. —James H. Lee, “Hard at Work in the Jobless Future,” Mar-Apr 2012, p. 35
Shake-ups in the “C Suite”: New corporate leaders with new skills are on the way. Corporate futures will be shaped by leaders adept in social networking, content management, data mining, and data meaning. Look for such job titles as Earned Media Officer, Chief Content Officer, Open-Source Manager, Chief Linguist, and Chief Data Scientist. —Geoffrey Colon, “Shakeups in the ‘C Suite’: Hail to the New Chiefs,” World Trends & Forecasts, July-Aug 2012, pp. 6-7
Subways, trains, and diesel trucks will become future sources of energy, not just consumers. Since most of the stored energy that vehicles use is wasted as heat spilling out from tailpipes, engineers at BMW, Ford, GM, and other manufacturers are seeking systems to recover thermal energy. For example, a system under development at Dynalloy Inc. would recover heat from a car’s exhaust system, generating enough power to run the car’s audio or air-conditioning systems. Trains would generate even more recoverable waste energy, since they are operated continuously. —World Trends & Forecasts, July-Aug 2012, pp. 7-8
Future cars may become producers of power rather than merely consumers. A scheme envisioned at the Technology University of Delft would use fuel cells of parked electric vehicles to convert biogas or hydrogen into more electricity. And the owners would be paid for the energy their vehicles produce. —Tomorrow in Brief, Mar-Apr 2012, p. 2
Noise vibrations and other “junk” energy will be harvested from the environment. Researchers at Georgia Tech are developing techniques for converting ambient microwave energy into DC power, which could be used for small devices like wireless sensors. And University of Buffalo physicist Surajit Sen is studying ways to use vibrations produced on roads and airport runways as energy sources. —World Trends & Forecasts, Nov-Dec 2011, p. 9
Buckypaper—a smart, superlight material—will increase energy efficiency. Industrial-grade carbon nanotubes are becoming more affordable. One promising use is Buckypaper, which appears flimsy but is 100 times stronger than steel per unit of weight. It can conduct electricity like copper and disperse heat like steel or brass. —Tsvi Bisk, “Unlimiting Energy’s Growth,” May-June 2012, p. 31
Forecasts for bioenergy in the United States may be overly optimistic. As a potential alternative source of energy to help the United States reduce its dependence on foreign oil, biofuels have not met proponents’ high expectations, says the American Chemical Society. One problem is land availability: To meet the goals of the 2007 Energy Independence & Security Act, 80% of current agricultural land would have to be directed toward biofuels. Another barrier is the uncertainty about oil prices, which inhibits biofuel investors. —World Trends & Forecasts, July-Aug 2012, pp. 9-10
Alternative energies won’t be enough to solve the world’s energy woes. Alternatives to alternatives are needed. Heavy investment into solar energy, wind energy, and other renewable systems may actually set us back, since these strategies draw resources away from others that might work better, warns University of California–Berkeley visiting scholar Ozzie Zehner. A more practical approach may be to design communities that enable people to live well while using less. —Books in Brief [review of Green Illusions by Ozzie Zehner], July-Aug 2012, p. 53
The next great wave of species extinctions may be in the oceans. By 2050, the scale of extinctions of ocean-dwelling plants and animals may equal the five great global extinctions of the past 600 million years, warns the International Programme on the State of the Ocean. Reasons: a “deadly triad” of pollution, overfishing, and climate change impacting the world’s ocean habitats. —“The Best Predictions of 2011,” Jan-Feb 2012, p. 36
“Peak water” may become as big a problem as peak oil. As water tables around the world become depleted, and as growing populations demand more water for personal as well as agricultural use, supplies of sustainably managed water will continue to fall. The consequences could be dire for human health, as water-related diseases proliferate. —Jerome C. Glenn, “Updating the Global Scorecard: The 2011 State of the Future,” Nov-Dec 2011, p. 27
Gadget-happy societies may become more environmentally friendly. The consumer-electronics industries in the United States are building more drop-off sites for customers to recycle outdated devices. Recycling increased by 53% from 2010 to 2011, netting 400 million pounds of gadgets. The Consumer Electronics Association’s goal is to recover 1 billion pounds of electronics by 2016. —Future Scope, July-Aug 2012, p. 4
Extinctions are outpacing scientists’ ability to discover new species. New tools enable both professional and amateur taxonomists to identify new species and share discoveries around the world. About 2 million species of plants, animals, fungi, and other life forms have been identified, and there could be another 10 million awaiting discovery. But human encroachment is increasing in species-rich locales such as the tropics, Southeast Asia, and New Guinea, threatening to kill off species before they can be discovered, warns botanist Peter H. Raven, president emeritus of the Missouri Botanical Garden. He estimates that 30% of Earth’s species will be extinct by the end of the century, due to climate change and habitat loss. —World Trends & Forecasts, Sep-Oct 2012, p. 8
Water pollution from pesticide runoff will likely increase. As climate change alters the activity and spread of pests, more farmers in Europe will turn to pesticides to keep their croplands productive. The result may be a doubling of pesticide use by 2090 over the 1990 average, and streams in as much as 40% of Europe’s land mass will suffer increased insecticide pollution, warns the Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research. —World Trends & Forecasts, May-June 2012, p. 13
By 2100, humans will have become managers of the natural environment. As climate change and population growth claim the planet’s remaining “wild places,” mankind will learn to manage the natural world as a global garden. Species and even microscopic habitats will be monitored and protected via tiny sensors, and managed with the assistance of artificial intelligence. —Brenda Cooper, “Where the Wild Things Are Not,” Sep-Oct 2012, p. 37
An aquaponic recycling system in every kitchen? Future “farmers” may consist of householders recycling their food waste in their own aquariums. An aquaponic system being developed by SUNY ecological engineers would use leftover foods to feed a tank of tilapia or other fish, and then the fish waste would be used for growing vegetables. The goal is to reduce food waste and lower the cost of raising fish. —Tomorrow in Brief, Nov-Dec 2011, p. 2
Genetic modification could yield healthier, more flavorful, and longer-lasting food, thus reducing waste and hunger. Vitamin A–fortified golden rice could help prevent blindness among children in developing countries, but it has not yet been approved. Such “Frankenfood” must first overcome opposition from fearful consumers (and from anti-GMO opponents like the $20-billion organic food industry). —Josh Schonwald, “Engineering the Future of Food,” May-June 2012, p. 27
Genetically engineered animals will become a major part of agriculture, but not soon. In the future, creating livestock that grows faster, consumes less feed, produces less waste, and yields leaner, healthier meat may seem a less “extreme” approach to meeting humanity’s food requirements than it does today. Meat production may even bypass animals, if public opinion shifts to favor lab-grown food as a more ethical approach. —Jeffrey Scott Coker, “Crossing the Species Boundary: Genetic Engineering as Conscious Evolution,” Jan-Feb 2012, p. 26
Demands to decrease pesticides and other chemicals on farms could exacerbate food shortages. However, lower crop yields could be compensated for by wasting less food, says environmental researcher Matthias Liess. About a third of all the food the world produces each year is either thrown out or lost in storage, transit, processing, or packing, according to the UN Food and Agriculture Organization. —World Trends & Forecasts, May-June 2012, p. 14
China’s growing appetite for meat will strain global grain supplies. China now consumes 71 million tons of meat a year, about twice as much as the United States and more than a fourth of all the meat produced worldwide, according to the Earth Policy Institute. Increased meat production also increases demand for corn and soybeans used for livestock feed. Supplies of these grains are already seeing strain as energy and other sectors compete with food producers. —Future Scope, Sep-Oct 2012, p. 4
By 2025, there will be 27 megacities around the world, each with populations exceeding 10 million. The “real population bomb” isn’t the sheer number of world population, but the relentless urbanization in places unprepared for this growth. Megacities in northern Africa, the Middle East, South Asia, China, and Indonesia, where poverty is already severe, will face more environmental pollution and become havens for terrorism and crime, warn defense experts P. H. Liotta and James F. Miskel. —Books in Brief [review of The Real Population Bomb by P. H. Liotta and James F. Miskel], July-Aug 2012, p. 55
By 2100, 70% of the world’s 10 billion inhabitants will live in cities. As rural residents move to far-more-complex urban habitats, many will struggle to cope with new institutions and new rules and attitudes. Slums will serve as catalysts for facilitating this psychosocial transition, enabling newcomers to adapt successfully. Instead of “solving” the slum problem, nongovernmental organizations will work to facilitate life with wireless service, educational programs, and “off-grid” power, water, health care, and sanitation services. —Eric Meade, “Slums: A Catalyst Bed for Poverty Eradication,” Sep-Oct 2012, pp. 43-44.
Knowmads may drive growth in micro-urban areas. As telecommuting enables more knowledge workers to work and live anywhere they choose, places with big-city amenities and a small-town feel could have growing appeal. Look for micro-urban booms in places like Fargo, Syracuse, Iowa City, and Roanoke. —Future Scope, Sep-Oct 2012, p. 4
A “green” housing boom is under way. U.S. home buyers are increasingly demanding energy efficiency and the use of sustainable materials both in new homes and in remodeling projects. “Green homes” will grow from 17% of the residential construction market in 2011 to 38% by 2016, with a fivefold increase in revenues, according to the National Association of Home Builders. —Future Scope, May-June 2012, p. 4
Drug-delivering nanorobots built from DNA could be approved for use in humans within 20 years. Medical nanorobots that carry molecule-sized payloads and can detect and attack cancer are being developed by Shawn Douglas and researchers at Harvard Wyss Institute for Biologically Inspired Engineering. The bots are like complex pieces of fabric, with hundreds of DNA pieces wrapped around a scaffold. When the bot encounters a protein indicating cancer, the nanostructure unlocks itself to release a cancer-fighting antigen. —World Trends & Forecasts, May-June 2012, pp. 15-16
Robots may become gentler caregivers. Lifting and transferring frail patients may be easier for robots than for human caregivers, but their strong arms typically lack sensitivity. Japanese researchers are improving the functionality of the RIBA II (Robot for Interactive Body Assistance), lining its arms and chest with sensors so it lift its patients more gently. —Tomorrow in Brief, Nov-Dec 2011, p. 2
Humans could one day reach longevity “escape velocity.” Continuous rejuvenation therapy that focuses on repairing cell damage before it accumulates, causing pathologies, may one day allow people to live for a thousand years. As these technologies continue to improve, each new round of rejuvenation therapy will improve upon the previous treatments, and we will stay young indefinitely. —Aubrey de Grey, “A Thousand Years Young,” May-June 2012, pp. 21-23
Full-body firewalls will be necessary to prevent hackers from tampering with your implants. Wireless medical devices designed to manage and monitor drug-delivery systems and other implants are vulnerable to interference. Researchers at Purdue and Princeton universities are developing a medical monitor (MedMon) designed to identify potentially malicious activity. —Tomorrow in Brief, July-Aug 2012, p. 2
Cancer survivorship may strain future health-care systems. More people are beating cancer and surviving longer and healthier—that’s the good news. The bad news is that elderly cancer survivors will still need more medical services. In the United States, the aging population is growing while the number of oncologists and geriatric specialists is declining. —Future Scope, Jan-Feb 2012, p. 4
Smart helmets will rapidly detect brain injuries. Contact sports will become smarter and less dangerous, thanks to helmets that detect concussions. By 2015, high-school football players could be wearing smart helmets that rapidly detect abnormalities in users’ brain-wave activity. The EEG-reading helmets, under development by Villanova University engineering professor Hashem Ashrafiuon and others, would alert medics on the sidelines if there are signs of concussion. —World Trends & Forecasts, July-Aug 2012, pp. 12-13
Better health, but fewer doctors. A projected shortage of more than 90,000 doctors by 2020 will drive technological innovations such as low-cost, point-of-care diagnostics—i.e., Lab-on-a-Chip technologies. A cell-phone-sized device could analyze your blood or sputum while you talk to a health provider from the comfort of your home. —Peter H. Diamandis and Steven Kotler, “The Abundance Builders,” July-Aug 2012, p. 17
Boys will enter their at-risk years earlier than ever. The age of male sexual maturity has been slowly decreasing since the mid-1700s (2.5 months per decade), thanks to changes in nutrition and environmental factors. A similar trend has already been observed among girls. While the “high-risk” adolescent years have been stretched for boys, the dangers may be offset by parents who tend to supervise children more closely when they’re younger. —Future Scope, Jan-Feb 2012, p. 4
New approaches to treating alcohol addiction could let alcoholics drink moderately. Abstinence is not always feasible or necessary in treating substance abuse, say researchers at UCLA’s Scripps Research Institute. A chemical treatment approach targeting peptides in the part of the brain that regulates moods and emotions could reduce alcoholics’ anxiety and the urge to drink. —World Trends & Forecasts, May-June 2012, pp. 6-8
Disease detection may soon be but a breath away. A Single Breath Disease Diagnostics Breathalyzer under development at Stony Brook University would use sensor chips coated with nanowires to detect chemical compounds that may indicate the presence of diseases or infectious microbes. In the future, a handheld device could let you detect a range of risks, from lung cancer to anthrax exposure. —Tomorrow in Brief, Sep-Oct 2012, p. 2
The future Internet could connect the world at the neural level. Advances in neurotechnology will make it possible for us to link our minds, share our emotional experiences, and even feel changes in the collective state of mind. This “telempathy” would, for instance, enable leaders to gauge public anxiety during a catastrophe. —Michael Chorost, “A World Wide Mind: The Coming Collective Telempathy,” Mar-Apr 2012, p. 22
Legal-expert systems will make laws easier for laypersons to understand. “Conversational law” will incorporate statutes, interpretations, precedents, and other elements of the law; the system will query users about their particular situation and provide clear answers on how the law applies. Lawyers may reduce their billable hours but earn income developing specialized legal-expert systems. —David R. Johnson, “Serving Justice with Conversational Law,” Sep-Oct 2012, p. 21
Minority languages will disappear with minority populations. Of the 6,900 languages spoken today, more than half face extinction in the next 100 years. Reason: 95% of the world’s population speak one of just 400 languages, and the remaining 5% of languages are scattered among fewer and fewer speakers. —Lawrence Baines, “A World of Fewer Words? Five Trends Shaping the Future of Language,” Mar-Apr 2012, p. 43
Mobile phones may contribute to political reform in Africa. Web-accessible mobile devices have proliferated in Africa, where text messaging and social networking are giving low-income residents more opportunities to watch their governments. Increased transparency and accountability, such as improving public access to spending on expensive infrastructure projects, could help reduce corruption and poverty, says Matthias Mordi, executive director of Accender Africa. —World Trends & Forecasts, Jan-Feb 2012, p. 6
The last newspaper and book will have been printed in 2020. Information formerly contained by print products will be rented by users rather than owned, and will be accessed from the cloud via 3-D mobile media. —Marcel Bullinga, “Welcome to the Future Cloud: Five Bets for 2025,” Jan-Feb 2012, p. 64
Tablet PCs, netbooks, and laptops will be extinct by 2022. Instead of relying on hardware, workplaces will become ubiquitous computing environments, where everything around you (door knob, coffee pot, window) has connectivity and computing capabilities. —“The Best Predictions of 2011,” Jan-Feb 2012, p. 30
Communication will become increasingly image-driven. Thanks both to the proliferation of video and to smaller screens for computing and communication devices, graphics and images will be more heavily relied on for ordinary communication. This will foster faster comprehension and possibly stimulate new ways of thinking, but at the cost of eloquence and precision. —Lawrence Baines, “A World of Fewer Words? Five Trends Shaping the Future of Language, Mar-Apr 2012, p. 46
By 2020, data will have a life of its own. Algorithms will talk to other algorithms, things will connect with millions of other things, and sensors will gather even more data, processed by more computers, all scarcely discernible to humans. But data may be becoming too big, and we need to learn how to channel the power of data into making the lives of everyone on the planet better. —Brian David Johnson, “The Secret Life of Data in the Year 2020,” July-Aug 2012, pp. 21-23
The “cloud” will become more intelligent, not just a place to store data. Cloud intelligence will evolve into becoming an active resource in our daily lives, providing analysis and contextual advice. Virtual agents could, for example, design your family’s weekly menu based on everyone’s health profiles, fitness goals, and taste preferences. —Chris Carbone and Kristin Nauth, “From Smart House to Networked Home,” July-Aug 2012, p. 30
Online pornography will become more graphic and more pervasive. As with any stimulant, pornographic imagery must become more intensive as users become less sensitive to its effects. One result will be the creation of an entire generation of young men so desensitized by pornography that they are unexcited by normal sexual encounters. —Roger Howard, “Anticipating an ‘Anything Goes’ World of Online Porn,” May-June 2012, p. 42
Neuroscientists may soon be able to predict what you’ll do before you do it. The intention to do something, such as grasp a cup, produces blood flow to specific areas of the brain, so studying blood-flow patterns through neuroimaging could give researchers a better idea of what people have in mind. One potential application is improved prosthetic devices that respond to signals from the brain more like actual limbs do. —World Trends & Forecasts, Jan-Feb 2012, p. 10
The next space age will launch after 2020, driven by competition and “adventure capitalists.” While the U.S. space shuttle program is put to rest, entrepreneurs are planning commercial launches to access low-Earth orbit and to ferry passengers to transcontinental destinations within hours. Challenges include perfecting new technologies, developing global operations, building new infrastructure, and gaining regulatory approval. —Joseph N. Pelton, “The New Age of Space Business,” Sep-Oct 2012, p. 17
Algae could provide the molecular machinery to create ultra-low-cost fuels. Pioneering genome sequencer J. Craig Venter aims to create synthetic life derived from algae, which would be run through a DNA sequencing machine and used to design future cheap biofuels. The technology could also create highly productive food crops, high-performing vaccines, and more. —Peter H. Diamandis and Steven Kotler, “The Abundance Builders,” July-Aug 2012, p. 15
Electron-level data-storage capacity could be achieved in just over 120 years. One of the eight “grand challenges” proposed by the DaVinci Institute is an electron-based storage system that could be manufactured for less than $1 per 100 terabytes. With Moore’s law on our side, we could reach this goal in the year 2133, according to University of Colorado–Boulder neurobiology professor Mark Dubin. —Thomas Frey, “Eight Grand Challenges for Human Advancement,” Jan-Feb 2012, p. 18
Coming soon to sports arenas: the Enhanced Games! Genetically enhanced athletes are nothing new, but rather than leaving the enhancements to luck, future technologies will enable more competitors to choose the alterations that will improve their performance. Officially sanctioned enhanced athletes will thus still compete on a level playing field. —Jeffrey Scott Coker, “Crossing the Species Boundary: Genetic Engineering as Conscious Evolution,” Jan-Feb 2012, p. 27
Genetic engineering could make us superheroes. While we may not become Batman, we may one day find it useful to incorporate specific animals’ traits (such as bats’ sonar-based “vision,” perhaps). —Jeffrey Scott Coker, “Crossing the Species Boundary: Genetic Engineering as Conscious Evolution,” Jan-Feb 2012, p. 27
The dream of “Smell-O-Vision” may soon come true. An odor-release device triggered by heat from an electrical current may one day bring scents into virtual-reality experiences, video games, and other applications. One potential use for such telesmell devices would be for alarm systems, perhaps scaring burglars away with skunk scents, according to engineering professor Sungho Jin of the University of California, San Diego. —World Trends & Forecasts, Nov-Dec 2011, p. 8
Robotic pack mules will lighten the load for human soldiers on the battlefield. Toting 100 pounds or more of gear can be a major impairment for troops. Robotic pack mules under development at DARPA could potentially carry 400 pounds on a 20-mile hike without refueling. —Tomorrow in Brief, May-June 2012, p. 2
Soldiers will communicate via telepathic helmets by 2020. Abandoning radio transmissions, microphones, and hand signals, tomorrow’s military will rely on helmets that read and communicate soldiers’ thoughts, according to biomedical scientist Gerwin Schalk. —“The Best Predictions of 2011,” Jan-Feb 2012, p. 30
A new era of global affluence, democracy, modernity, and equality is on the way. “Modernity is not a choice,” writes Hudson Institute co-founder Max Singer in his new book, History of the Future.
Singer observes that the rise of globalized communications means that citizens of traditional, poor, and repressed countries are less likely to tolerate their conditions when they can easily watch others become free and prosperous. And, he notes, “as globalization advances, the menu of opportunities for people everywhere expands.” —Max Singer, author of History of the Future, reviewed by Rick Docksai, Jan-Feb 2012, p. 50
A new era of global disruption, resource depletion, and universally wrecked economies is on the way. So projects ecologist Paul Gilding in The Great Disruption. Ecological catastrophes will beget socioeconomic ones unless governments launch wartime-like efforts to avert them. The potential disruptions will spread to public health and spark violence.
Gilding believes that the world’s peoples will unite to transform the world’s destructive systems. —Books in Brief review of The Great Disruption by Paul Gilding], Jan-Feb 2012, p. 53
The global Muslim population could increase from 1.6 billion to 2.2 billion (35%) by 2030. The Muslim population is growing at about twice the rate of the world’s non-Muslim population, reports the Pew Forum on Religion and Public Life. Muslims will make up more than one-fourth (26.4%) of the world’s projected population in 2030. —“The Best Predictions of 2011,” Jan-Feb 2012, p. 32
Both China and India will experience growing pains over the next decade. India’s population, growing at twice the rate of China’s, is creating an “enviably young” workforce, reports the RAND Corporation. China is viewed as having a better educated workforce than India, suggesting that China’s GDP will continue to exceed India’s through 2025, but the aging population bodes ill for China’s longer-term security. —World Trends & Forecasts, Mar-Apr 2012, p. 12
Mandarin Chinese may gain on English’s popularity globally. On the Internet, Mandarin and English have close to the same number of users (510 million and 565 million respectively). However, the number of Mandarin users online increased 1,478% between 2000 and 2011, compared with 301% for English users. The fastest growth was among Arabic users (2,501% increase) and Russian (1,825%). —Lawrence Baines, “A World of Fewer Words? Five Trends Shaping the Future of Language, Mar-Apr 2012, p. 43
Good news and bad news for 2020: The 2011 State of the Future report found reasons to both cheer and fear what global trends portend for the decade ahead.
Where We Are Winning:
Where We Are Losing:
—Jerome C. Glenn, “Updating the Global Scorecard: The 2011 State of the Future,” Nov-Dec 2011, p. 26
Some have said for a long time that the management of Ireland has been corrupt, collusive and self-destructive.
The solutions have been evident, but require action by those that are party to the inefficiencies. The track record is not good – even the priests never owned up about their corruption.
Perhaps enough people will wake-up to the truth and choose to stop living a lie. The alternative is continuing erosion of the means to sustain ourselves, destruction of the fabric of society and the wasting of the opportunity to live full lives.
From The Wall Street Journal:
On Dec. 13, 1862, they came through the morning fog, wave after wave, some of the finest fighting troops in the Union army. After earning distinctions at Seven Pines, Malvern Hill and Antietam, the Irish Brigade was asked to carry the green flag where others could not go, to secure Marye’s Heights over the Virginian town of Fredericksburg.
Though glorified by the London Times, it was a hopeless charge that never should have been asked of any soldiers. The myth of the “fighting Irish” was sealed. But the reality was that the Irish were destroyed, suffering over 80% casualties on a field that had grown crops to relieve the earlier Irish famine.
The myth of Irish pluck continues today, even amid the financial crisis. Prime Minister Enda Kenny recently graced the cover of Time magazine. But according to data from the International Monetary Fund, Ireland has displaced Japan as the world’s most indebted economy. Government, household and nonfinancial company debt add up to 524% of Irish GDP. (The Central Bank of Ireland uses a different basis for calculating the debt of nonfinancial firms; its estimate for total debt would be lower than the IMF’s.) Funding this gargantuan load at an average cost of 4.5% would swallow nearly 24% of GDP—in other words, Ireland’s entire industrial output.
Yet still a Celtic comeback is prophesied. There are three huge problems with this unattainable myth:
• Irish taxpayers are still paying for the mistakes of Irish banks & the previous Fianna Fail (now a toxic party) government. Having started the crisis with a sovereign debt-to-GDP ratio approaching 20%, Ireland will have added another 100% before it’s over. And in a perverse reversal of democracy, two-thirds of this load was foisted on the Irish under pressure from the unelected board of the European Central Bank to save German, French and British banks—together with a panoply of other bank bondholders—from the consequences of their investment decisions.
Nowhere in the euro zone have so few citizens been asked to carry so much to save the union. But even today, with Ireland having met all the targets its creditors have set, there remains stiff resistance, especially from the ECB, to restructuring this part of Ireland’s national debt.
Relying on soft diplomacy, the Irish government seeks to sell its shareholdings in the functioning banks it saved to the new bailout fund, and to ease the punishing burden of repayments on the emergency liquidity provided to Anglo Irish Bank by extending the loan term to 40 years. The total plowed into banks is €64 billion, about 40% of Irish GDP.
• Irish household debt is still unsustainable. According to the IMF, household debt, which currently is as large as Ireland’s national debt, will stand at 185% of disposable income in 2017. The Irish are expected to arrive at this level from a peak of 210% by saving 14% of their income, nearly half of which would have to be redirected into debt repayments. So a decade after the crisis began, Irish household debt will arrive at a level well above the starting point of other crisis economies.
One in five Irish mortgages is in arrears. Yet four years into the crisis the Irish government has failed to introduce a modern, balanced and dignified insolvency regime, relying instead on a mishmash of laws, many of them Victorian and one of them, the Sheriffs Act, dating back to the 13th century.
Modern insolvency legislation would at the very least provide timelines to work through distressed debt. But such reform is being stiffly resisted behind the scenes by the banking lobby and the ECB. The result is a fiasco for Irish families, as the great game of “extend and pretend” continues. The urgent introduction of a standardized insolvency process matched to the scale of bad debts must also be supported by the European Stability Mechanism if fresh capital buffers are required.
• Irish labor costs—especially in the public sector—are still far too high. Since 1987, the Irish Parliament has callowly transferred wage-setting power to labor unions via the “social partnership” process. But a 2010 deal with public-sector unions, signed amid a brutal period of layoffs and pay cuts in the private sector, goes farther still by fixing pay and pensions for government workers at extraordinarily high levels through 2014. The agreement was named after Ireland’s largest secular temple: Croke Park, headquarters of the Gaelic Athletic Association, where the deal was struck.
Its effect, hardly sporting, is to privatize job losses from the recession and crowd out essential public services. In Greece, Portugal, Spain and Ireland, government employees already enjoy among the EU’s highest pay premia over workers in the private economy. But pay within the Irish public sector is also well above EU levels.
Pay for hospital consultants, teachers and nurses is singled out as especially high by the IMF. Note; Local Irish county managers are paid more than most European prime ministers!! Brendan Howlin, the minister in charge of reforming the public sector, is himself a former teacher and trade union activist. The inner cabinet of the Irish government—which comprises the prime minister, the deputy PM, the minister for finance and the minister for public reform—brings the intellectual firepower of three secondary-school teachers and a trade unionist to bear on Ireland’s crisis. All support the public-sector cartel.
The Irish government points to a reduction in public-sector numbers due to a recruitment freeze—as if those who take early retirement are abducted by aliens to a planet beyond the galaxy, and not into Ireland’s Ponzi pension scheme, which quadrupled its liabilities to €120 billion over the past decade while losing most of its assets to the bank bailout.
So while Time magazine and others eulogize the plucky leader of the Irish people, the truth is that Enda Kenny leads a Vichy government—captive externally to creditors that still insist on loading bank debt onto the sovereign, and internally to a tribe of insiders led by union godfathers in a deal that protects the government’s own excessive pay and pensions while bankers lean over its shoulders to rewrite insolvency laws. A Great little country, not!
This isn’t just crony capitalism. It’s crony democracy.
Mr. Hobbs is a financial writer and presented the RTE television series “Rip-Off Republic.”
A good place to learn about balancing economics, environment and ethics.
From what little I know of prehistory, man roamed the Earth for hundreds of thousands of years in small tribes — probably no more than two hundred people per group. During this time all wisdom was passed along according to the oral tradition. Everything you needed to know in order to succeed as a human being was told and/or shown to you, whether it be how to find a girl, find a guy, have sex, have a baby, find food, raise children, deal with family, argue with neighbors, care for the sick, elderly and dead, fight, work, sing, dance, play and get really loaded in order to hookup with the universe. (Side note: I’ve always loved the term “prehistory,” which arrogantly implies that prior to the emergence of our culture, nothing happened.) Anyway, this state of affairs lasted for a long, long time. It was relatively stable. Peace on Earth, if you will. Then, with the advent of large-scale agriculture and the need for ever larger swathes of land to accommodate it, the tribal system collapsed and people began to live huddled together in towns, villages and cities. In short order, the priceless wisdom that taught us who we were and how we could live a happy life was forever lost to mankind. Which brings us to today. I don’t believe that we became a neurotic and self-destructive species because we’re born in sin, or otherwise flawed. I believe our fall from grace was simply a forgetting. Speaking of which, don’t forget to buy my book of vanity cards, which is chock full of wisdom-rich oral tradition — that inadvertently got written down — and can be preordered online right now! Hurry, supplies are limited. (I don’t actually know if that’s true, but it sounds cool. What is true is that all my proceeds go to charity.)
Another study has reiterated the foolishness of stuffing children with chocolate and chips. The health problems of middle age are now occurring in children from as young as two years old who are obese. Either the love or carelessness of parents is killing children. Parents want to give the children what they want, or don’t care what they eat, with the consequence of really fat kids.
The habit is self reinforcing: lots of chips make exercise difficult, too much TV dulls the incentive to run around, chocolate and chips become a habit … and then you have a heart attack at the age of 12. Parents take note, please, before some Eurocrats start regulating our dietary choices.
How can a sitcom (like The Big Bang Theory) facilitate communion with god? Well, …
ME: I believe that watching tonight’s show might constitute a spiritual experience.
YOU: That’s a pretty bold statement. How do you figure?
ME: Glad you asked. Since the concept of past and future is entirely man-made (ask any other living creature about past and future and all you’ll get is a dumb, non-comprehending stare), then it follows that if there is a god, a unifying spirit of the universe, be it “intelligent” or simply a pervasively unifying quantum particle sort of deal, then the present, “the constantly unfolding now,” is the only possible place it can exist. Which brings me to my bold assertion: If you laughed at any time during tonight’s show, you had to be paying attention. If you were paying attention it means you were, for that moment, in “the now” — the same place as the previously mentioned pervasive, unifying quantum particle we, as a species, enjoy worshipping and committing genocide over. Ergo, you had a spiritual experience.
YOU: Assuming you’re right, so what?
ME: So what?! This is huge! If a simple sitcom can lead to communion with the eternal, then I can make a case for my work having religious significance. Next step… The Church of Chuckology and a tax break! Ooh, maybe even a sleepy little burg in Florida I can call my own.
It must demand the greatest will power. It must demand selfless sacrifice.
To set yourself on fire to bring attention to injustice.
It still happens in our world in which we think everything is OK. (BBC: Tibetan men in ‘first self-immolations in Lhasa’) We may not need to martyr ourselves though our political system is not free from autocratic methods. Very sad.
I keep this image of a Thai student self-immolating against government corruption in 1990 to remind me of what other people do to make the world a better place:
So the headline reads: “Male pill: gene discovery may lead to contraceptive“. Followed by a note that researchers in Edinburgh identified a gene critical for the production of healthy sperm.
Mmmmm. This sounds a bit like what Monsanto did with grain - modifying the seed genetics so that it could to reproduce. The “Terminator” gene. (They wanted to force farmers to keep buying the seed, rather than keeping grain aside to sow the next season as nature designed.) I suppose in a dramatic doomsday scenario this could end up sterilising all men. I hope it will be treated with the respect it deserves. But it won’t. The decision makers are suits after money. They work in corporations that are insulated from the law and which don’t reproduce in the same way that humans do.
We have a poor track record. Just yesterday there was the note about the global nuclear hazard emanating from Japan, which no one knows about. Or, this morning, on the weather forecast lots of talk about sunshine and warmth across this region of Europe, but no mention of the drought and water shortages in the same areas where aquifers are almost exhausted and reservoirs are low. Who knew?!