I don’t think that the economic contraction has ended yet, but there are signs of a bottoming out of some markets. The US market has been cleaning itself out for six months, though moral hazard remains as do some big skeletons (like the Madoff, Stanford …). The Fed Chairman is concerned about stagflation too. But the market is low and maybe only has another 10% to fall – DJIA bottoming around 6,000.
See this chart from JPMorgan. Thomas Lee, their US Equity Strategist writes: “Believe or not, retracing 12-year lows for the Dow is an incredibly rare event. Besides the retest of 1997 lows seen on Monday, this has only happened two other times, on April 8, 1932, and December 6, 1974.”